July 21, 2009

Possibility vs. Probability

If you try for something, there is a good chance (probability) that you might get it.
But, if you never try there is no chance (not possible) of getting anything.
I can start this with a simple example. Say, a jackpot lottery has been announced. If you go and buy a lottery ticket there is probability that you might win the lottery (you never know). If you don't get the ticket it is definitely not possible (impossible) to win the lottery, and probability is zero(0). But, if you do buy the ticket then there is a "1 in n" probability for you, and it doesn't matter though the odds against you are "n-1". It doesn't mean you have to keep shelling out money on lottery tickets, it is just a metaphor :). Grab that chance in life though if it is 1 in million probability.

In most cases I see people (including me) saying it is impossible to do something. In most cases that "something" is something than can be possible. But the probability of getting it done might be less.
Let's get into some Mathematics (most people hate it but I like it):
If something 'might' be possible then the probability comes into play. It means that the value of probability is greater than zero (and less than 1 :)). If something is not possible then the probability of it happening is zero. So this means that possibility and probability are dependent. Also when it is possibly it is either 0 or 1, if it is probably then it is between 0 and 1.

So when do we say or decide that something is impossible. It is quite obvious that it all depends on how we think. For example, when I ask, "what is the probability of getting heads when I toss a coin". We all would think and say it is 50% (or 1/2). What would be the probability of not getting either heads or tails and you would think it is not possible. But lets think differently(crazily), what if I tossed the coin in big pile of sand like a sand dune, or on the top of deep water. Take sand for instance, it might be heads or tails or it might land vertically or it might even get lost (even if I find it, it is tough to say what the result was). So, it is not that easy to say something is not possible.

I was watching this movie "Pursuit of Happiness". Will smith is divorced, left with a 8-9 year old kid struggling to get a job (working as a intern/trainee). One day when there is football game and kid is big fan of the game. he keeps asking his father if they can go to the game. But the father is more worried about selling his self-designed equipment to make some money to at least survive for next few weeks. The kid keeps asking and the father was replying "possibly". The father asks his son to make sure he understood. "So what does possibly mean?". The kid replies "something like probably". Father says, "No, probably means there is a good chance we might go, possibly means we might or we might not go. The father asks again, "So what does possibly mean?".The son replies in despair, "it means we are not going". At the end of the day though his father could not sell the machine he manages to take him to the football game. The father was trying to create a hope that he might fulfill his sons wish and he was trying for every possible way. The son on the other side did not believe his father and thought it was possible.

Just like this, in most cases in our lives if we want to get/do something we tend to think about the result and the odds against us even before we try to do it and we end up thinking it is not possible, finally we do nothing and just give up. Most of the things that we want to do are possible, it just depends on the way how we measure the odds in favor and against us, it's all just in our mind. Let me give you an example. Say, you are in a basket ball court, how hard would it be to throw the ball in the basket from one end to the other. What would be the probability? Is it really possible? The probability is definitely 1/2. But talking about the possibility, yes definitely it is possible if you are really good at it. Let's just think, all you have to do is calculate the distance between you and the basket, the speed and angle required considering the wind direction(if any) and the force at which you need to throw it. It might need lot of practice to get all this, but can be done, it is possible. Anything you want to do in life is just like that.

If some thing is possible it is no more probable, if something is probable it might be possible. Possibility or Probability, no matter what it is, but it is your ability to make something possible.


P.S: This might not make sense at all. Please ignore if it doesn't. In either case leave a comment.

3 comments:

  1. Good one and its right that it’s our ability to make things possible but sometimes (not always) it really becomes important to think about the result first and the difficulties that could arise and later coming up with ways to overcome them in order to make it possible(successful) at the end.

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  2. Thank you, I totally agree with you, and that is what I said. May be my language was not right. The basket ball example does justify it. I just said not to loose hope and give up fearing about the consequences or result.

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  3. yup you're right...I think i missed that basket ball example earlier :)

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